Prospects for large-scale financial systems simulation

As the 21st century unfolds, we find ourselves having to control, support, manage or otherwise cope with large-scale complex adaptive systems to an extent that is unprecedented in human history. Whether we are concerned with issues of food security, infrastructural resilience, climate change, health care, web science, security, or financial stability, we face problems that combine scale, connectivity, adaptive dynamics, and criticality. Complex systems simulation is emerging as the key scientific tool for dealing with such complex adaptive systems. Although a relatively new paradigm, it is one that has already established a track record in fields as varied as ecology (Grimm and Railsback, 2005), transport (Nagel et al., 1999), neuroscience (Markram, 2006), and ICT (Bullock and Cliff, 2004). In this report, we consider the application of simulation methodologies to financial systems, assessing the prospects for continued progress in this line of research

The fallacy of general purpose bio-inspired computing

Bio-inspired computing comes in many flavours, inspired by biological systems from which salient features and/or organisational principles have been idealised and abstracted. These bio-inspired schemes have sometimes been demonstrated to be general purpose; able to approximate arbitrary dynamics, encode arbitrary structures, or even carry out universal computation. The generality of these abilities is typically (although often implicitly) reasoned to be an attractive and worthwhile trait. Here, it is argued that such reasoning is fallacious. Natural systems are nichiversal rather than universal, and we should expect the computational systems that they inspire to be similarly limited in their performance, even if they are ultimately capable of generality in their competence. Practical and methodological implications of this position for the use of bio-inspired computing within artificial life are outlined

An evolutionary advantage for extravagant honesty

A game-theoretic model of handicap signalling over a pair of signalling channels is introduced in order to determine when one channel has an evolutionary advantage over the other. The stability conditions for honest handicap signalling are presented for a single channel and are shown to conform with the results of prior handicap signalling models. Evolutionary simulations are then used to show that, for a two-channel system in which honest signalling is possible on both channels, the channel featuring larger advertisements at equilibrium is favoured by evolution. This result helps to address a significant tension in the handicap principle literature. While the original theory was motivated by the prevalence of extravagant natural signalling, contemporary models have demonstrated that it is the cost associated with deception that stabilises honesty, and that the honest signals exhibited at equilibrium need not be extravagant at all. The current model suggests that while extravagant and wasteful signals are not required to ensure a signalling system's evolutionary stability, extravagant signalling systems may enjoy an advantage in terms of evolutionary attainability

Empiricism in artificial life

Strong artificial life research is often thought to rely on Alife systems as sources of novel empirical data. It is hoped that by augmenting our observations of natural life, this novel data can help settle empirical questions, and thereby separate fundamental properties of living systems from those aspects that are merely contingent on the idiosyncrasies of terrestrial evolution. Some authors have questioned whether this approach can be pursued soundly in the absence of a prior, agreed-upon definition of life. Here we compare Alife’s position to that of more orthodox empirical tools that nevertheless suffer from strong theory-dependence. Drawing on these examples, we consider what kind of justification might be needed to underwrite artificial life as empirical enquiry. In the title of the first international artificial life conference